程文利、萨克斯、杨小凯和张定胜 (cheng, sachs, and yang, 2000, sachs,yang,zhang, 2000)证明,在一个自由经济制度下,由于分工增加生产力的好处和增加交易费用的坏处之间的两难冲突,均衡的分工水平由交易效率决定。交易效率极低时,最优的经济结构就是自给自足,其生产力低下,也没有交易费用。当交易效率在沿海地区稍微提高但又没有高到足以将所有人都卷入分工时,则发达地区的人会卷入分工,而交通不便地区的人们仍然自给自足。如果有两个国家,国家之间没有移民自由,则交易效率高的国家中所有人卷入高分工水平,没有二元经济,交易效率低的国家,沿海运输条件好的居民与外国贸易, 而交通条件差的地方自给自足,产生二元经济。在这种二元经济中,贸易条件对落后国不利。落后国可以用保护关税改进贸易条件,但这却以抑制分工的发展为代价。如果落后国进一步改进交易条件,则可与发达国通过关税谈判达成多边自由贸易,使国内国际分工水平提高,生产力提高,所有人的福利水平提高。民国后期和1949年后和1980年代前,中国是采用的前一种经济发展方法。中国1980年代后采用的是后一种方法。
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